Time Series Analysis of Heat Index: Bases for Determining Extent of Damages in the Rice Farming Industry in Metro Bataan

The main purpose of this research was, initially, to have a Mathematics-based analysis for determining the extent of damages in the agricultural sector of Metro Bataan from 2015 to 2019. However, during data gathering, the researchers were informed that the needed official data were not available because they were not collected by the government agency concerned. Thus, instead, the researchers established a math model for observed and predicted heat index for the province. The respondents were 40 farmers, with farms ranging from half-hectare to 15 hectares. The research made use of a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. Two sets of data were collected: [1] heat index data in two nearby provinces through data provided by the Climate and Agrometeorological Data Section from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (CADS-PAGASA) and [2] local information from questionnaires, individual face-to-face interviews and an online interview which became the basis for the case study of the farmers. From 2015 to 2019, the heat index in Bataan was not officially recorded by the PAGASA. Because of this, the researchers had to rely on the heat index data for two other Region 3 provinces, specifically Iba, Zambales, and Clark area, Pampanga. The researchers computed the estimated and assumed heat index in Bataan by getting the mean of the heat indexes in Iba and Clark. This was used to derive a math model for forecasting heat index in the future. This model hopes to aid government and non-government agencies in planning and organizing efficient responses to farms affected by extreme heat. This research can be used as a springboard for more accurate and more extensive calculations in future research on agriculture.  From available quantitative data, the exact effects of the heat index in Metro Bataan cannot be pinpointed. However, more in-depth qualitative data were obtained from farmers through the mentioned questionnaires and interviews. The vast majority of respondents experienced a decline in the amount and the quality of their harvest, and they claim that it was because of extreme temperatures. In the case of two respondents, the quantity of harvest was not negatively affected due to the availability of efficient diesel water pumps. The research also reveals the advantages of being affiliated with government agencies that provide relevant assistance to farmers.  It also offers insights to farmers and government agencies to design and implement mitigating actions to make agriculture in the province of Bataan more climate-resilient and more sustainable.